At the beginning of August, Didi and Uber officially announced the "merger", which triggered a series of predictions about the future of the Internet. And such prophecies are not the first time people have heard, Didi and Quick Drops, 58 and the market, the US Mission and the reviews, Ctrip and where to merge, these prophecies have changed. The actions of one or two companies can trigger public conjectures about the future, and they are also achievements.

These companies were established for a short period of four to five years and more than ten years. Long-term attention to the field of Internet medical entrepreneurship can not help but generate such a conjecture: Internet medical care, which has been developing for five years or so, will there be any huge and far-reaching impact of the merger of two companies? If not now, after five years, what kind of enterprises will have industry integration capabilities such as Didi, 58, Meituan, and Ctrip?

Back in the course of five years of Internet medical treatment, whoever has doctor resources, patient resources, and hospital resources, is likely to occupy the future track. The current industry leader is also generally based on this logic. The logical mistake of five years ago was that the changes in this industry were not as fast as expected. So the investors who have spent a lot of money but can't be commercialized and can't quit have started to say sour and stop investing in Internet medical care. This makes entrepreneurs feel particularly difficult to finance.

Today, we are back to such a node, predicting the Internet medical track five years later. Experience over the past five years has shown that the “resource-based” approach is very limited, but the changes are very limited. So what are the key factors that affect the medical market after five years?

　　 1. Several reasons why the merger does not happen

Go back to a slightly more pressing topic. In the current Internet medical field, is there a company that can completely change the industry after two or more mergers? According to the experience of other industries, the medical field completely changes the consideration of the industry pattern, it should be nothing more than a certain one of the three indicators: the number of users, the number of doctors and the number of hospitals.

Purely, there may not be such a company in Internet medical care (the data has been officially published by various companies). For example, the number of users, nearly 80 million safe doctors, 92 million doctors in Chunyu, more than 100 million registered users of medical doctors; for example, the number of doctors covers 2 million doctors (about 3 million doctors), medical union 400,000, apricot forest 200,000; for example, the number of hospitals, registered network at the end of 2015, 1900 hospitals, medical treatment 160 in March 2016 to serve 2,700 hospitals, health roads reached 4,500 hospitals.

It can be seen that in the current situation, any combination of the above two companies can have an almost absolute quantitative advantage in their respective directions. But such a merger does not seem to have happened so far, and it seems that the merger does not make much sense.

The main reason for the absence of mergers is that the merger cannot change the status quo of the Internet medical industry. For example, it is obvious that Didi, Uber or 58. The merger of these companies, one can have an absolute market share, and the other is that both sides can no longer burn. For these companies, the reduction in the cost of burning money means that profits are generated at the same time.

But in the Internet medical arena, these changes may not happen.

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