In March and April of 2016, the growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry rebounded, and the industry concentration improved.
1) In the first four months of 2016, the revenue and profit growth of the pharmaceutical industry were 10.1% and 15.6% respectively. The growth rate in April was 10.7% and 20.5% respectively. The signs of industrial growth in March and April were obvious;
2) After the introduction of the No. 70 document, the bidding of the provinces has accelerated, and the drug price negotiation has already landed. It is expected that there will be new progress in the national tender in 2016;
3) The industry policy has been introduced in all directions, involving medical insurance, grading diagnosis and treatment, drug approval, and pharmaceutical circulation. The medical reform has entered an accelerated period. The intensive policy introduction will lead to deep reform of the pharmaceutical industry and reshaping of the market structure, and the trend of concentration improvement is obvious. We believe that the market has digested the pressure of drug administration, the growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry may exceed expectations, and the valuation is relatively reasonable. It is recommended to actively lay out high-quality leading targets. In the current policy environment, we should seize the three major investment directions: one is the investment opportunities brought about by the increase in concentration; the other is to prioritize the enterprises with innovative capabilities; the third is to find sub-areas with strong market demand and high prosperity. .
Through the fog of industry policies, the opportunities in the five major investment areas are obvious.
1) The pharmaceutical distribution industry is welcoming the increase in concentration and model innovation. The "two-vote system" is the focus of the health system reform in 2016. It will be vigorously promoted in the pilot provinces and cities of medical reform, and the withdrawal of small-scale circulation enterprises will help the concentration of leading enterprises to increase. A decline in the proportion of medicines will also drive prescription outflows, and DTP pharmacies may become a new profit model;
2) Graded diagnosis and treatment is an inevitable trend, and the family doctor model quietly rises. Compared with the previous diagnosis and treatment mode of grassroots community hospitals, the family doctor model is more inclined to comprehensive medical service providers, signing residents' health records, electronic medical records, inspection reports, etc. to achieve information sharing and business collaboration, which will increase the management needs of medical information . ;
3) The reform of drug approval policy has been promoted, and generic drug companies have ushered in a new starting point. The normalization of clinical data verification will help improve the quality of drug research and development and the development of research-driven enterprises; the consistency evaluation will improve the quality of the domestic pharmaceutical industry, and the number of generic drugs and approvals will be greatly reduced. It is expected that generic drugs will be produced in the next three years. Industry concentration will increase rapidly, and auxiliary materials enterprises will benefit at the same time; the new chemical drug classification reform will be conducive to the development of domestic innovative drugs;
4) The nuclear medicine industry is not affected by bidding and control fees, and enjoys the import substitution bonus. The application of radionuclides to tumor diagnosis and treatment is in a period of vigorous development and is expected to exceed 10 billion in 2020. At the same time, the technological innovation represented by proton therapy + the demonstration effect of the successful trial operation of Shanghai Proton Heavy Ion Hospital is expected to drive domestic tens of billions of market space;
5) The volume and price of the blood products industry have risen and the high growth continues. It is expected that the blood products industry will maintain a 25% compound growth rate during 2016-2018, and the increase in pulp consumption will contribute 16-18% growth rate. The market price increase and supply will increase the price increase of blood products by 5%. The sub-sector of the most promising performance in the context of the overall decline in the pharmaceutical industry.
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