Investment points
This report attempts to analyze the format and pattern of industry competition at this stage by analyzing the special attributes and regulatory models of the gene sequencing industry. In particular, it conducts detailed research and discussion on the industry's midstream and downstream sequencing services and clinical applications, and targets the industry. The growth logic of different participants in the chain, deducing the development trend of the future industry, and finally combing the investment opportunities of relevant sectors, especially listed company participants.
The cornerstone of precision medicine, huge industrial space: a new generation of gene sequencing can efficiently construct a large sample of genomic database, and the interpretation of individual clinical data can realize the association between genes and diseases and drugs, and help clinically provide accurate and reasonable disease prevention for different individuals. Intervention, diagnosis and treatment, medication guidance and health management are the cornerstones and essence of precision medicine . In the future, the global gene sequencing industry is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of more than 20%, and will reach a scale of more than 10 billion US dollars after 2-3 years.
Technology leap + policy escort, the market enters the fast lane: NGS drives the sequencing industry to leap-forward development with the "super-molar law", successfully reducing the cost of human whole-genome sequencing to less than $1,000, and the sequencing industry has broken through the hard constraints of clinical application; The announcement of the domestic NGS clinical pilot list and the corresponding technical guidelines also indicates that policy access is gradually liberalized, industry standards are gradually established, and breakthroughs in the two major commercial application bottlenecks bring the sequencing industry into the fast lane of rapid development.
The industrial structure is clear, and the value of data and channels is the way to win: the monopoly of foreign capital makes domestic enterprises more cut into the mid-stream sequencing services. In the long run, service competition is the competition of data interpretation and channel value, which is embodied in the standard clinical sample. Collecting + System Efficient Big Data Analysis Interpretation is the R&D strength of the enterprise. According to the current policy, the preemptive layout and channel expansion of the pilot units with limited resources are the marketing capabilities of the enterprise. The future wins mainly lies in the value of data and channels. accumulation. We expect that the downstream application side of NGS will still focus on the more mature production screening market in the short term, and the future field of larger tumors will be the general trend.
Investment suggestion: The gradual liberalization of future policy access will guide the industry to develop in an orderly manner. The technological breakthrough will continue to expand the application scenarios. The integration of industrial mergers and acquisitions will promote the internal restructuring and cross-border prevalence. In short, the long-term trend of the industry is clear and upward, and the future needs Companies with focus on channel first-mover advantage, data accumulation interpretation ability and rich application scenarios, listed companies suggest to pay attention to: 1), first-time enterprises - scale + product + channel: Dean diagnosis, Daan gene; 2), Mergers and acquisitions and cross-border transformation enterprises - main business support + continuous layout: new open source, Zhongyuan Concord, Beilu Pharmaceutical, Dongfulong, Tomson Bianjian, Aoyang Technology; 3), data service companies: Rong Zhilian, etc. .
Risk warning: industry regulatory policy risk; downstream application scenario expansion is not up to expectations; mid-stream service provider competition is intensifying; upstream technology breakthroughs trigger industry reshuffle.
Report body
1. Technology leap + policy escort, sequencing becomes the cornerstone of precision medicine
Gene sequencing technology has been around for a long time. The first generation of sequencing technology has developed into the gold standard for identifying DNA sequences, and the emergence of rapid, low-cost, high-throughput gene sequencing methods has greatly promoted the progress of scientific research. The core gene sequencing technology mentioned in this paper refers to Next Generation Sequencing (NGS, also known as “Second Generation Sequencing†or “High Throughput Sequencingâ€), which serves as an epoch-making sequencing technology revolution to enable genes. It is possible to commercialize sequencing into clinical application, and effectively solve the pain points of traditional medicine (from "same disease to the same disease" to "different disease treatment"), which lays the foundation for accurate medical care in the future; at the same time, the second generation sequencing has been developed in recent years. The mature IVD field presents outstanding comparative advantages and gradually becomes the new direction and growth driver of future industry development.
In general, technological breakthroughs and policy promotion are the two decisive factors that drive gene sequencing from the laboratory into the clinical and public perspective, and are favored by industry and capital. Among them, technological breakthroughs and innovations enable gene sequencing to achieve rapid, low-cost and high-throughput, which is in line with the popularization of the application and the affordability of the consumer. At the same time, the loosening and promotion of industry policies has gradually clarified the regulatory responsibility and gradually applied. Standardized and standardized, so that the two bottlenecks that hinder the penetration of gene sequencing technology into commercial applications have been successfully broken. From the perspective of commercialization, sequencing is a tool, and the market for clinical applications in docking is huge. The rapid growth and continued prosperity of the future gene sequencing industry will be the general trend.
1.1 Breaking through the pain points of traditional medicine and leading the era of precision medicine
Traditional medicine relies mainly on the practical experience of clinicians, combined with objective clinical data and knowledge, to give standardized treatment opinions to patients with the same symptoms, but the actual efficacy varies from individual to individual. Gene sequencing analyzes DNA sequences, constructs a large sample of genomic database, combines individual life information and clinical data to understand the pathogenesis and mechanism of disease, and help clinically provide accurate and reasonable disease prevention interventions for different individuals. Diagnostic treatment, medication guidance, and health management, this personalized medicine is the essence of Obama's "precise medical care." Simply put, precision medicine is expected to be a customized, quantitative medical model that maximizes treatment effectiveness and minimizes side effects compared to traditional medicine.
According to BCC Research, the global precision medical market is close to 60 billion US dollars in 2015, and the annual growth rate is expected to be 15% in the next five years, which is 3 to 4 times the overall growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry. Precision medicine is the product of the medical health era, and is the definite trend of the future development of the bio-pharmaceutical industry. As the cornerstone of precision medicine, gene sequencing is expected to lead the industry to continue to rise and prosper.
1.2 The growth of the segmentation field is outstanding, and the future is becoming mainstream
The molecular diagnostics segment of the gene sequencing belongs to the growth rate
According to statistics, in the global IVD market, the proportion of molecular diagnostics accounts for 11%, and the compound growth rate also reaches 11%, ranking first in the industry. China's molecular diagnostics account for only 5% of the IVD market, but the growth rate is higher than 25%, ranking first. In the future, with the advancement of technological innovation and the demand of the application end, it is expected that China's molecular diagnostics segment will achieve high-speed throughput.
NGS leads the IVD market to high-end
China's IVD industry generally shows that the low-end market growth is stagnant, the mid-end market is rapidly expanding, and the high-end market is gradually opening up the “olive†market structure. In the future, with the structural upgrading of the IVD industry and the high-end extension of technology, the NGS technology industry, which is represented by the high-end technology field, is bound to usher in a high-speed growth period.
NGS is an important driver of the segment industry
In recent years, with the maturity and popularity of NGS technology, its penetration rate has continued to increase. According to a research report by Markets & Markets, the global market size of NGS in 2014 was 2.5 billion US dollars, and it is expected to reach 8.7 billion US dollars in 2020, with a compound growth rate of 23%. NGS has become the fastest growing sub-sector in the field of molecular diagnostics. It surpasses traditional PCR, FISH and gene chip technologies and is expected to become the mainstream of the industry and lead the industry.
1.3 Technology accelerates iteration, cost hard constraint breakthrough
From the 1970s Sanger proposed the dideoxy termination method, and in the 1980s and 1990s, Applied Biosystems Inc. (ABI) launched the first sequencer based on this method, and then humans used a generation of sequencers to complete the costly human genome. It is planned that gene sequencing technology has never been as good as water in other clinical applications like other IVD product technologies. The technical revolution of the second-generation sequencing has broken through the commercialization bottleneck of gene sequencing. The reasons for this are that we mainly include the breakthrough of the hard constraint of sequencing cost and the comparative advantage of the second-generation sequencing technology innovation.
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